Alternative Visions of Syria’s Future: Russian and Iranian Proposals for National Resolution

(Presented at the European Parliament on November 12, 2015)

Russia

Russia’s immediate goal, in simplest terms, is to end the fighting and return stability to Syria. The Kremlin has made it clear that: it considers president Assad’s government legitimate; considers Russian intervention legal because made at the request of the Assad government; and — importantly — that it does not consider extremist elements limited to IS but that they are fluid groups of fighters operating under different banners often receiving financing and training under the guise of moderate opposition and then bringing those resources to IS, the Al-Nusra Front, Al Qaeda and any number of other radical military forces. This does not mean that Russia is not willing to engage genuine moderate Syrian opposition. As a matter of fact, Russia has been engaging the Syrian opposition, whose representatives — along with those of the Syrian government — have come to Moscow for talks time and again throughout the civil war. I myself have met with them. Russia has also engaged the moderate Syrian opposition in the Geneva conferences and other international talks.

More and more

Russia Growing Muscles in Middle East

After nearly a month of conducting daily air strikes, Russia is beginning to reveal its political calculations and strategic intent in Syria. A new round of talks in Vienna on a political solution for Syrian conflict is being conducted in which Russia is about to play a major role. There is a growing sense in Moscow, and among diplomats and politicians in some countries in the Middle East and the West, that Russia has a better chance than most to combine its increased influence over Assad with its military muscle in Syria’s skies to broker a deal to end the Syrian conflict. Hard reality is that right now Russia has more chances than any other country to settle the political process for Syrian conflict. But it’s not about Syria only Russia has big ambitions in whole Middle East and entering into the Syrian bloody war on the side of Bashar Al Assad was just a small part in Russia’s new grand strategy for Middle East. Since long Russia was frustrated with America’s strategic dominance over the region. To establish Kremlin also as a potent force in the region President Putin choose Syrian theatre to show his muscles.

More and more

Reactions to and Ramifications of the Nuclear Talks Result

Thursday evening in Iran people flooded the streets to celebrate what looks to be, at last, a tangible and positive result of the long and hard negotiations on the Iranian nuclear program with the “P5 +1” (five permanent members of the UN Security Council and Germany). Columns of cars were honking; many were carrying photos of Iranian President Hassan Rouhani; and in homes and shops, broadcast live, there was Barack Obama speaking about the results of the talks. It didn’t hurt the festive mood that the agreement was announced on the Iranian holiday of “sizdah de dar” the last day of Noruz celebrations (the ancient Persian New Year).

More and more